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This Marist Poll reports:
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WHAT A DIFFERENCE A MONTH
MAKES...BLOOMBERG’S APPROVAL RATING SLIPS SIGNIFICANTLY:
Although a majority of registered voters in New York City -- 59% --
think Mayor Michael Bloomberg is doing either an excellent or good
job in office, his approval rating has dropped significantly. This
is the first time since 2005 that his job performance rating has
dipped into the 50 percent range. In a Marist Poll conducted in
August 2005, 53% of the city’s voters thought Mayor Bloomberg was
doing well in his position. Bloomberg’s approval rating has fallen
since last month when 68% of the electorate thought Bloomberg was
doing an above average job. Currently, Bloomberg is far from perfect
in the eyes of 39% of voters. 28% report his job as fair while 11%
say he is performing poorly as mayor.
BIG APPLE SPLITS OVER CITY’S DIRECTION:
New York City voters divide over whether the five boroughs need a
new compass. 47% of the electorate believes the city is headed in
the wrong direction while 45% feel it’s on the right path. Voters
are much more pessimistic than they were when the Marist Poll last
asked this question. In its March 2006 survey, 64% of registered
voters said the city was moving in the right direction compared with
30% who thought it was going the wrong way.
GOOD OR BAD? MORE VOTERS VIEW TERM LIMIT EXTENSION AS BAD FOR THE
CITY:
Mayor Bloomberg may have won the battle to extend New York City’s
term limits, allowing him to run for a third term, but he has a long
way to go to convince New Yorkers that the change is a good one.
While 30% of the electorate believes the decision by the City
Council and the mayor is good for the city, a plurality of the
electorate -- 43% -- disagrees with the change. In fact, 48% want
the courts to overturn the decision and revert back to the two term
limit. 42% think the courts should uphold the new law.
BLOOMBERG’S BID FOR THIRD TERM...A POLITICAL PITFALL?
Mayor Bloomberg’s push for a third term may hurt him at the polls.
In light of his decision, 40% of New York City voters say they are
less likely to support the mayor’s potential 2009 re-election bid
compared with 19% of the electorate who say they are more likely to
back Bloomberg’s quest. 41% say his decision on term limits makes no
difference to their vote.
BLOOMBERG WITH LEAD OVER DEMOCRATIC OPPONENTS...RECEIVES SLIM
MAJORITY:
If New York City’s mayoral election were held today, Mayor Michael
Bloomberg would achieve his goal of a third term. However, he has
lost some support among voters. When placed up against Congressman
Anthony Weiner, City Comptroller Bill Thompson, or City Council
Member Tony Avella, Bloomberg leads Weiner 51% to 37%, outpaces
Thompson 52% to 32% and defeats Avella 54% to 28%. Last month,
voters had Bloomberg leading Weiner 56% to 30% and in front of
Thompson 55% to 30%.
NO CLEAR-CUT DEMOCRATIC CHALLENGER FOR BLOOMBERG:
30% of registered Democrats in New York City say, if they had to
decide today, they are unsure about the candidate they’d choose to
take on Mayor Bloomberg in the 2009 mayoral race. However, those who
have formed an opinion see Congressman Anthony Weiner as Bloomberg’s
most formidable challenger. Overall, 34% of the city’s electorate
report they would choose Weiner in the Democratic primary. New York
City Comptroller Bill Thompson comes in second with 26%. 10% report
they would back City Council Member Tony Avella.
NATURE OF THE SAMPLE: 696 NEW YORK CITY REGISTERED VOTERS
This survey was conducted from November 17th through November 19th,
2008. 696 registered voters within the New York City area were
interviewed by telephone. Telephone numbers were selected based upon
a list of telephone exchanges from throughout New York City in
proportion to the enrollment in each borough and adjusted for
turnout in comparable elections. The results for the entire survey
are statistically significant at +/-4%. There are 447 registered
Democrats. The results for this subsample are statistically
significant at +/-5%. The error margin increases for
cross-tabulations.
NOVEMBER 5th:
WITNESSING HISTORY: REFLECTIONS OF ELECTION NIGHT 2008
By Mary Azzoli
It was an unusually warm November evening marred only by a few
sporadic raindrops -- Election Night 2008. A hum of anticipation
weaved its way through a growing crowd gathered on NBC’s "Election
Plaza," and within hours, that buzz escalated into a symphony of
cheers, chants and applause, climaxing the moment NBC declared
Barack Obama the first African-American president of the United
States.
For pollsters and political junkies, few things compare with the
excitement of Election Night. This year, though, was different.
History would be made regardless of who won, and the team at the
Marist Poll had ringside seats to witness the monumental event
unfold.
Nestled seven floors above "Election Plaza," the "MIPO" staff
crunched exit poll numbers in the WNBC newsroom. After releasing an
exhilarating and exhausting 29 high-stakes polls this general
election season, the team
was primed for the outcome. Throughout the evening, the staff
analyzed data and prepared stories for "NBC New York’s" coverage.
One-by-one, the network called the states, and just after eight
o’clock, Barack Obama
achieved a major victory and John McCain a crushing blow.
Pennsylvania went blue. Like so many of the political pundits, the
pollsters at Marist spent many days (and nights) discussing the
importance of Pennsylvania. When the announcement was made, a
colleague and I looked up from the stack of papers assembled between
us and stared at each other. Pennsylvania had fallen quickly -- a
major indicator of the direction of the national electorate.
A little more than an hour later, what many considered John McCain’s
political death knell rang. Barack Obama carried Ohio.
As each state fell, an explosion of cheers erupted outside. The
crowd’s elated cries permeated the walls of 30 Rock. Then, it
happened. Just before eleven o’clock, NBC News announced internally
they were going to declare Barack Obama the 44th president of the
United States.
With cameras in hand, the MIPO staff raced down to WNBC’s broadcast
platform overlooking the Rockefeller Center Skating Rink. There, Dr.
Lee Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute, sat with WNBC
anchor David Ushery awaiting their next report. Throughout the
evening, Dr.
Miringoff provided WNBC viewers with exit poll analysis, and
everyone on the staff was familiar with the route down to the rink.
On this, our final journey down to the location, however, the end
was far different. We gathered, not only to help ensure a successful
broadcast but to witness a great first in American history.
Atop the platform, an overwhelming energy emanated from the crowd
surrounding us. When the official call came down declaring Barack
Obama the next president of the United States, the scene mirrored
that which is seen in Times Square on New Year’s Eve. While
many listened politely, the chants and cheers continued as Senator
John McCain made his concession speech. But, soon the mood changed.
The giant plasma screens hoisted high above the plaza showcased
President-elect Obama inside Chicago’s Grant Park, and as he
approached the podium, the crowd outside of 30 Rock hushed -- a
silence seldom heard in New York’s bustling midtown. If for just one
brief moment, white, black, young and old were joined together to
witness history and bound by a renewed sense of hope toward the
future.
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